Wash.

Me.

Mont.

N.D.

Minn.

Vt.

Ore.

N.H.

Idaho

Wis.

N.Y.

S.D.

Mich.

Conn.

Wyo.

Pa.

N.J.

Iowa

Neb.

Nev.

Ohio

Ind.

Ill.

Utah

W.Va.

Colo.

Calif.

Va.

Kan.

Mo.

Ky.

N.C.

Tenn.

Okla.

Ariz.

Ark.

N.M.

S.C.

Ga.

Ala.

Miss.

Tex.

La.

Fla.

SPRING FOLIAGE

Days early, against 30-year average

5

15

25

Wash.

Me.

Mont.

N.D.

Minn.

Vt.

Ore.

N.H.

Idaho

Wis.

N.Y.

S.D.

Mich.

Wyo.

Pa.

N.J.

Iowa

Neb.

Nev.

Ohio

Ind.

Ill.

Utah

W.Va.

Colo.

Calif.

Va.

Kan.

Mo.

Ky.

N.C.

Tenn.

Okla.

Ariz.

Ark.

N.M.

S.C.

Ga.

Ala.

Miss.

Tex.

La.

SPRING FOLIAGE

Fla.

Days early, against 30-year average

5

15

25

Wash.

Me.

Mont.

N.D.

Minn.

Ore.

Idaho

Wis.

N.Y.

S.D.

Mich.

Wyo.

Pa.

Iowa

Neb.

Nev.

Ohio

Ind.

Ill.

Utah

Colo.

Calif.

Va.

Kan.

Mo.

Ky.

N.C.

Tenn.

Okla.

Ariz.

Ark.

N.M.

S.C.

Ga.

Ala.

Miss.

Tex.

La.

Fla.

SPRING FOLIAGE

Days early, against 30-year average

5

15

25

SPRING FOLIAGE

Days early, against 30-year average

5

15

25

By the 2017 calendar, the first day of spring is March 20. But spring leaves arrived in mid-January in some parts of the South, and spread northward like a wave. The map above plots the date of “first leaf,” a temperature-based calculation of when vegetation that has been dormant starts to show signs of life. This year, with the exception of a few small areas, the wave has arrived much earlier than the 30-year average.

An early spring means more than just earlier blooms of fruit trees and decorative shrubs like azaleas. It can wreak havoc on schedules that farmers follow for planting and that tourism officials follow for events that are tied to a natural activity like trees blooming. Some plant species that bud early may be susceptible to a snap frost later, and early growth of grasses and other vegetation can disrupt some animals’ usual cycles of spring feeding and growth.

First leaf can vary greatly from year to year and location to location, but the general long-term trend is toward earlier springs.

End of January

End of February

Wash.

Wash.

Me.

Me.

Mont.

Mont.

N.D.

N.D.

Minn.

Minn.

Ore.

Ore.

Idaho

Idaho

Wis.

Wis.

N.Y.

N.Y.

S.D.

S.D.

Mich.

Mich.

Wyo.

Wyo.

Pa.

Pa.

Iowa

Iowa

Neb.

Neb.

Nev.

Nev.

Ohio

Ohio

Ind.

Ind.

Ill.

Ill.

Utah

Utah

Colo.

Colo.

Calif.

Calif.

Va.

Va.

Kan.

Kan.

Mo.

This year

Ky.

N.C.

N.C.

Tenn.

Tenn.

Okla.

Okla.

Ariz.

Ariz.

Ark.

Ark.

N.M.

N.M.

S.C.

S.C.

30-year

average

This year

Tex.

Tex.

La.

La.

Fla.

Fla.

FIRST LEAF INDEX

30-year

average

Extent of spring leaves, by month

The New York Times

End of January

End of February

Wash.

Wash.

Me.

Me.

Mont.

Mont.

N.D.

N.D.

Minn.

Minn.

Ore.

Ore.

Idaho

Idaho

Wis.

Wis.

N.Y.

N.Y.

S.D.

S.D.

Mich.

Mich.

Wyo.

Wyo.

Pa.

Pa.

Iowa

Iowa

Neb.

Neb.

Nev.

Nev.

Ohio

Ohio

Ill.

Ill.

Utah

Utah

Colo.

Colo.

Calif.

Calif.

Va.

Va.

Kan.

Kan.

Mo.

This year

Ky.

N.C.

N.C.

Okla.

Okla.

Ariz.

Ariz.

Ark.

Ark.

N.M.

N.M.

S.C.

S.C.

30-year

average

This year

Tex.

Tex.

La.

La.

Fla.

Fla.

30-year

average

FIRST LEAF INDEX

Extent of spring leaves, by month

The New York Times

End of January

Wash.

Me.

Mont.

N.D.

Minn.

Ore.

Idaho

Wis.

N.Y.

S.D.

Mich.

Wyo.

Pa.

Iowa

Neb.

Nev.

Ohio

Ind.

Ill.

Utah

Colo.

Calif.

Va.

Kan.

Mo.

Ky.

N.C.

Tenn.

Okla.

Ariz.

Ark.

N.M.

S.C.

This year

Tex.

La.

Fla.

30-year

average

End of February

Wash.

Me.

Mont.

N.D.

Minn.

Ore.

Idaho

Wis.

N.Y.

S.D.

Mich.

Wyo.

Pa.

Iowa

Neb.

Nev.

Ohio

Ind.

Ill.

Utah

Colo.

Calif.

Va.

Kan.

This year

N.C.

Tenn.

Okla.

Ariz.

Ark.

N.M.

S.C.

30-year

average

Tex.

La.

Fla.

FIRST LEAF INDEX

Extent of spring leaves, by month

The New York Times

End of January

This year

30-year

average

End of February

This year

30-year

average

FIRST LEAF INDEX

Extent of spring leaves, by month

The New York Times

The new research shows a strong link between global warming and the very warm February that helped to drive the extremely early spring this year. For the entire continental United States, February 2017 was the second warmest on record, and mean temperatures were especially high east of the Rockies: as much as 11 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

The study, by scientists working as part of a group called World Weather Attribution, looked at the influence of climate change on the temperatures, using models of the atmosphere as it exists and of a hypothetical atmosphere with no greenhouse gas emissions and thus no human-driven climate change. They found that a warm February like the one just experienced is about four times more likely in the current climate than it would have been in 1900, before significant emissions began to change the climate.